Tranzero Energy - Industrial electricity collaboration

Key Conclusions

• The established view that Swedish industry possesses extensive flexibility potential that can easily be used to manage temporary power peaks and similar urgent situations is inaccurate. It must therefore be investigated whether other sectors of society can contribute with technically, economically, and regulatorily viable flexibility that does not negatively affect Swedish competitiveness.
   
• Increased forecasting capability and developed planning can reduce risks and costs. A growing challenge as the electricity and ancillary service markets evolve is increased and more variable costs. One way to avoid these costs may be improved short-term forecasts and planning.
   
• Continue working in a cluster-constellation for ongoing dialogues. The cluster format has in itself been a valuable way of working, creating closer contacts and increased understanding of other actors' situations, partly thanks to the network owner taking an active role and supporting the industrial actors in mapping and assigning a cost to existing flexibility options. We recommend similar collaborations in other parts of the country.

Supplementary conclusions are available in the project report (in Swedish).

Background

In the forecasts for electricity power capacity needs in Gothenburg made by Göteborg Energi Nät AB in 2025, the analysis indicated that the power demand would increase sharply up to 2035. The largest share of the projected increase was due to the growing electricity power capacity needs of industry and transport. In combination with the long lead times required to secure more grid capacity for Gothenburg from the superior network, an initial premise when the project started was that Gothenburg risked facing capacity problems as early as 2027 and at recurring times thereafter. As a result, applications for increased power capacity could not be met without conditional agreements or other mechanisms. In practice, this would have meant a strong slowdown in the electrification of the area if a solution had not been developed.

The starting point for Tranzero Energy was that through close collaboration between various actors, knowledge and understanding of the current situation and future development regarding the supply and demand for electrical power capacity could be increased, and that power capacity reserves could also be created during urgent situations. Increased collaboration could also lead to lower costs for future investments in energy infrastructure and other equipment.

Purpose

The purpose of the project was to ensure that the industrial cluster's competitiveness could be maintained or improved regardless of capacity issues, partly with the help of data analysis and artificial intelligence. The project has been unique in its kind due to the participation of so many different types of actors, including various industries, as well as electricity trading and electricity network companies. Several of the project participants operate in multiple locations in Sweden and internationally and are central actors in the transport system. This means that lessons learned locally within the Hisingen cluster can also create value throughout the country. Furthermore, there are other industrial clusters around the country similar to the one on Hisingen that can learn from the project's working methodology and operate in a similar way.

Changed prerequisites

During the project's duration, the prerequisites for electrical power capacity needs in Gothenburg changed, mostly due to postponed or cancelled industrial establishments. This meant that the risk of capacity problems in the near term disappeared. Therefore, no immediate threat of an imminent capacity shortage is now considered to exist. However, the transport sector's ongoing transition needs remain, and two other perspectives gained increased relevance: resilience and robustness, and costs linked to what is defined as imbalances in the electricity consumption of the participating actors.

This led to the project being adjusted and, to some extent, slightly broadening its scope compared to the original content. This change in the system's condition thus creates a kind of window of opportunity that the project's actors agreed to utilize to improve the prerequisites/possibilities for managing future potential capacity shortages, rather than solving an existing one. The issue remains relevant because the fundamental needs for transition and development still exist.

Project process

The goal of the project, which had the nature of a preliminary study, has been to identify a number of recommendations regarding future research and development areas through mappings, analyses, and investigations. This may include regional power generation and technical/commercial solutions for what is called flexibility, as well as various policy recommendations for both external and internal actors within the industrial cluster.

The participating actors in the industrial cluster during the project were AB Volvo, Göteborg Energi, Göteborg Energi Elnät, Göteborgs Hamn, Scania, Stena Line, Varo Preem, Vattenfall, Vattenfall Eldistribution, and Volvo Cars. The project leader was AI Sweden, and the project lasted for 1 year, from May 2025 to May 2026.

A number of work packages were carried out within the framework of the project. These included work packages responsible for global context analysis, mapping and valuation of flexibility potential, analysis of possible existing solutions to manage capacity shortage, identification of new innovative solutions to manage capacity shortage, and finally, compilation of the project's insights and messages.

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